The Equity Strategist by Robert B. Withers
On the first Friday of each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its Non-Farm Payrolls report.
More commonly, it’s called the “jobs report”.
The jobs report is a sector-by-sector look into the U.S. economy and whether businesses are hiring — or firing — workers. This is one of the reasons why its release is so hotly anticipated each month — the jobs report can reveal a lot about the state of the U.S. economy.
Last month, the economy shed 62,000 jobs.
Now, many people will assume that job losses like this are terrible for the U.S. economy. Sometimes, that’s true.
This month, it’s not.
Given the ongoing tug-o-war between inflation and recession, markets are somewhat pleased with the June job loss figures because job losses reduce the likelihood of inflation in the U.S. economy.
Inflation is considered by many — Ben Bernanke included — to be among the top threats to the U.S. economy — it devalues the dollar and leads to increases in the Cost of Living.
Inflation also threatens home affordability because mortgage rates tend to rise when inflation is present.
June’s job losses — while bad for those impacted — is helping to relieve inflationary pressures on the economy and that is boosting markets performance this morning. Stocks are slightly up, and mortgage rates are slightly down.
Mortgage rates improved last week, marking the first time since mid-May that has happened.
The rate drop is the result of how mortgage markets interpreted the Federal Reserve’s Wednesday press release.
In it, the Fed said:
Separately, none of this was news to the markets. But considering all three statements together, investors grew nervous of leaving money in the stock market — specifically in financials.
Post-Fed announcement, there was a wave of selling that dropped the Dow Jones Industrial Average nearly 20 percent from its October 2007 high.
As stocks sold off, though, mortgage shoppers were benefiting.
Rates ticked down in the Fed announcement’s wake because the mortgage bond market acted as a “safe haven” for traders. More demand for mortgage-backed bonds caused rates to fall, accented by a favorable run very late in the day Friday.
This week, the momentum may continue, or it may not. There is a lot to capture traders’ attention in this holiday-shortened, four-day work week.
The biggest data release of the week will undoubtedly be Thursday’s Unemployment Report, but there are also two Fed speakers stumping, as well as Treasury Secretary Paulson speaking about the economy.
As the week goes on, more and more traders will be leaving for the long weekend so expect rates to move with greater force as Thursday afternoon gets nearer. And, if stocks haven’t regained favor with investors by then, expect that mortgage rates will have a good week.
A Home Equity Line of Credit is bank product that grants homeowners access to the equity in their home at anytime, usually using checks.
Often called a HELOC, these equity-based credit lines function very much like credit cards:
But different from credit cards is that a HELOC is “guaranteed” by real estate and with real estate values in question nationwide, many banks are exercising a little-known clause in the HELOC contract.
With alarming frequently, banks are reducing the pre-set spending limits on their active equity lines. Via USPS, lenders are notifying homeowner with $100,000 HELOCs that their new HELOC limit is $25,000, for example.
And the banks aren’t being discriminate based on payment history or local real estate conditions, either — it’s happening everywhere with equal force.
The good news is that banks will accept appeals on HELOC reductions on a case-by-case basis.
One way to appeal a HELOC reduction is:
Banks will typically not reinstate a HELOC if a borrower has been delinquent on payments, or lives in a severely depressed neighborhood. However, because lenders rely on computer models to assess risk, it’s always a good idea to ask.
Sometimes the Human Element of an appeal can work in your favor.
Most homeowners make four housing-related payments each month:
Collectively, these payments are known by the acronym PITI but don’t let it fool you — a homeowner’s monthly expenses are still called PITI even if one or more of the elements doesn’t apply.
For example, a homeowner with an interest only mortgage does not pay principal each month.
Additionally, condo owners typically don’t pay homeowners insurance — they pay a monthly assessment and/or maintenance fees to an association instead.
But regardless for what it stands, determining a comfortable PITI should be every homeowner’s starting point when looking for a new home. PITI is the monthly housing cost, after all, and by knowing what fits in your budget, it’s a lot easier to compare homes and their related expenses.
It’s certainly better than asking the bank “how much home can I afford” — all that’s going to tell you is the P and the I. As a homeowner, you need to know all four.
PITI is most commonly pronounced pee-eye-tee-eye.
California, Florida, Arizona and Michigan account for more than half of the foreclosures in the U.S. in May 2008RealtyTrac released its most recent foreclosure statistics and if you only read the headlines, you think the entire country was on the verge of losing its homes.
The underlying data tells a different story, however.
More than half of the country’s foreclosure activity in May 2008 was tied to just 4 states in the union:
1. California (28 percent)
2. Florida (14 percent)
3. Arizona (5 percent)
4. Michigan (5 percent)
In other words, the majority of mortgage defaults are coming from a small minority of states.
See, between 2002 and 2006, California, Florida and Arizona were very popular with real estate speculators, many of whom over-extended themselves on real estate; and Michigan’s economy has been decimated by job losses in the auto and manufacturing industries.
In addition, these 4 states are among the nation’s most populous. It makes sense that they are distorting the national statistics.
On a local level, the news is not so grim. Not only did 20 states show a reduction in monthly foreclosure activity, but many more fell below the national foreclosure average. That type of story, though, doesn’t make for good headlines, is all.
Search the full May 2008 foreclosure report for yourself on RealtyTrac’s Web site.